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Image: Financial Indicator
As we navigate the opening weeks of 2026, the mining industry finds itself in an extraordinary, yet uncharacteristically sober, bull market. Unlike the exuberant and often reckless booms of the early 2000s, the current "commodity supercycle" is defined by a unique paradox: record-breaking prices for core minerals paired with an unprecedented level of capital discipline among major producers.
At VBKOM, we leverage our deep technical South African expertise to solve global mining challenges. In this article, we examine the shifting dynamics of the current commodity cycle, from the stratospheric rise of precious metals to the strategic stabilization of the green metals, and what this means for the future of mining projects.
Image: Gold Nuggets in a Measuring Scale
The most visible story of late 2025 and the start of 2026 has been the relentless momentum in the precious metals sector.
In October 2025, gold broke through USD4,000 per ounce, and during the first two weeks of January 2026, gold shattered records again, trading near the USD4,600 per ounce. This rally has been fueled by a combination of conviction buying from central banks, particularly in emerging markets, and a structural shift in which institutional investors are allocating up to 3% of their assets under management to gold as a hedge against persistent bond market volatility.
Silver has been the true “wildcard” of the quarter. Often seen as gold’s volatile cousin, silver reached a historic milestone on the 12th of January 2026, trading above USD88 per ounce. This represents a staggering 210% gain over 13 months. The dual nature of silver, both as a monetary asset and a critical component in the expanding solar energy sector, has created a powerful supply squeeze.
After a downturn in 2024, Platinum Group Metals have begun to reemerge, with the platinum price climbing back above the USD2,300 per ounce earlier in this year, after the record high of $2,413.62 per troy ounce, reached on 26 December 2025. This resurgence is supported by high-end industrial demand and its growing role in the hydrogen economy. While some analysts remain cautious about long-term palladium demand due to the battery electric vehicle (BEV) shift, the current cycle has provided a much-needed margin cushion for Southern African producers in South Africa and Zimbabwe.
J.P. Morgan, “2026 market outlook: A multidimensional polarization,” 09 December 2025. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook. 14 January 2026.
The Economic Times, “Silver prices surge above $88/oz for the first time in history, now up +210% in 13 months – why silver prices move so fast and what is the silver price forecast for 2026 ahead?”, 13 January 2026. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/silver-prices-surge-above-88/oz-for-the-first-time-in-history-now-up-210-in-13-months-why-silver-prices-move-so-fast-and-what-is-the-silver-price-forecast-for-2026-ahead/articleshow/126507606.cms?from=mdr. 14 January 2026.
ING Think, “Gold’s bull run to continue in 2026,” 8 December 2025. https://think.ing.com/articles/golds-bull-run-to-continue-in-2026/#:~:text=Strength%20to%20continue%20in%202026,-Looking%20into%20next&text=We%20see%20prices%20averaging%20%244%2C325,demand%20amid%20easing%20geopolitical%20tensions. 14 January 2026
Image: Copper Pipes
As of January 2026, copper remains the cornerstone of the energy transition and burgeoning AI data center industry. During December 2025, copper prices reached a record USD12,000 per metric ton, before stabilizing in the USD10,500 to USD11,000 range in January 2026.
Beyond the “green narrative”, two new driving pillars are supporting the copper demand, the first being the rapid expansion of AI-focused data centres (which are extremely copper-intensive, requiring immense copper cabling and cooling infrastructure), and secondly, the global surge in defense spending.
Financial powerhouses like Goldman Sachs remain structurally bullish. While their research teams note a small supply surplus in the short term, they forecast copper to reach the USD15,000 per ton mark by 2030. For project developers, this suggests that any downturn in the current cycle should rather be viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of a bust.
Goldman Sachs, “Copper Prices Are Forecast to Decline Somewhat from Record Highs in 2026,” 11 December 2025. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/copper-prices-forecast-to-decline-from-record-highs-in-2026. 15 January 2026.
Mining Indaba, “Top 10 Mining Trends to Watch in 2026,” 7 January 2026. https://miningindaba.com/articles/top-10-mining-trends-to-watch-in-2026. 15 January 2026.
White & Case LLP, “Mining & metals 2026: Adapting to a policy-driven business cycle,” 12 January 2026. https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/mining-metals-2026-adapting-policy-driven-business-cycle. 15 January 2026.
Image: Electric Vehicle
The "wild west" era of lithium pricing appears to be over, replaced by a more predictable, yet still tight, market. After a period of oversupply in late 2024 and a turbulent 2025, lithium has found its footing in early 2026.
Although there is a slowdown in EV sales, global EV sales exceeded 20 million units in 2025, and with that massive base, the demand for lithium carbonate and hydroxide is once again outpacing new mine supply. While EV growth remains the primary driver, grid-scale battery storage for wind and solar projects is now the fastest-growing source of new demand for the metal.
Some of the key lithium price points for 2026 so far have seen Battery-Grade Lithium Carbonate around USD15,000 to USD18,000 per ton, Battery-Grade Lithium Hydroxide around USD14 to USD18 per kilogram, with general spot prices at USD18,000 per ton, which is driven by an energy storage demand. The drive towards energy storage demand is rooted at the center of US foreign policy, driven by critical minerals, which could potentially reshape the lithium value chain.
We are seeing a shift toward long-term offtake agreements rather than spot-market gambling. This "maturity" is a net positive for the industry, as it allows for better project financing and more reliable Life-of-Mine (LoM) planning.
CarbonCredits.com, “Lithium Prices Surge Amid Strong Demand Forecasts, Could Reach Up to $28,000/Ton by 2026,” 14 January 2026. https://carboncredits.com/lithium-prices-surge-amid-strong-demand-forecasts-could-reach-up-to-28000-ton-by-2026-nili/. 15 January 2026.
Investing News Network, “Lithium Market Forecast: Top Trends for Lithium in 2026,” 1 January 2026. https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/battery-metals-investing/lithium-investing/lithium-forecast/. 15 January 2026.
Image: VBKOM Executive Business Development, George Olivier, in New York City
The major financial hubs from Wall Street to London share a sentiment of cautious optimism. In Goldman Sachs’ most recent January 2026 outlook, they have been vocal about the “volatility risks” in gold, warning that the current rally is not linear. However, they remain very optimistic about copper, citing a “USD5 trillion investment gap” required to meet the 2040 minerals demand.
While the analysts at J.P. Morgan’s recent outlook on gold are more aggressive, projecting gold prices to average around the USD5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. Further, the recent World Bank reports highlighted that although base metals are poised for a 2% increase over the next two years, iron ore might face some headwind as the Chinese construction demand will moderate, with renewable infrastructure providing a significant offset.
Mining Weekly, “Goldman Sachs raises first-half copper price forecast,” 9 January 2026. https://www.miningweekly.com/article/goldman-sachs-raises-first-half-copper-price-forecast-2026-01-09. 13 January 2026.
ING Think, “Gold’s bull run to continue in 2026,” 8 December 2025. https://think.ing.com/articles/golds-bull-run-to-continue-in-2026/#:~:text=Strength%20to%20continue%20in%202026,-Looking%20into%20next&text=We%20see%20prices%20averaging%20%244%2C325,demand%20amid%20easing%20geopolitical%20tensions. 14 January 2026.
Image: Open Pit Mine Blast
A critical question for this current commodity cycle is: “Will companies repeat the mistakes of the past, and fast-track sub-par projects?"
Data and movements in the mining sector suggest that mining majors are prioritizing capital discipline and innovation over raw volume. Instead of “fast-tracking” in the traditional sense, we are seeing a “Digital Unlock” through technology. This includes AI-Driven Exploration that can reduce discovery time and costs and increase reliability of data, Autonomous Fleets that increase safety while reducing operational costs, Digital Twins that allow for real-time pit optimization and ore blending to maximize yield, as well as Blockchain Traceability that ensures ESG compliance as a prerequisite for project funding.
Mining companies are not just building more mines; they are building smarter mines, with a growing trend toward brownfield expansions, which utilize the implementation of technology to increase the value out of existing assets rather than taking on the risk of greenfield development in unproven territories.
Mining Doc, “What is the future of mining with automation and digitization,” 26 August 2025. https://www.miningdoc.tech/question/what-is-the-future-of-mining-with-automation-and-digitalization/. 15 January 2026.
Mining Technology, “Leveraging AI and satellite technologies for autonomous operations,” 30 December 2025. https://www.mining-technology.com/features/leveraging-ai-and-satellite-technologies-for-autonomous-operations/?cf-view. 14 January 2026.
In 2026, the “geopolitics of minerals” will be the primary deciding factor of project success.
The African Continent, as our hub and within our own backyard, we foresee that Africa is at the forefront of the critical minerals race. Countries like the DRC dominate the cobalt sector and host significant copper deposits, and Zambia, as a regional processing hub, is seeing record investment. Specifically, the “Strategic Mineral Corridors” in West-Africa, such as Guinea-Senegal lithium, and Southern Africa with their platinum-rich deposits are becoming essential nodes in the global supply chain.
Canada and Australia, where VBKOM has expanded to, remain the “gold standard” jurisdictions for low-risk, high-tech mining. These two countries are benefiting from the high commodity prices, and by investing heavily in advanced geological surveys and advancements in mining technology.
Is a bust imminent? At VBKOM, we believe that we may see “tactical pullbacks” in gold or copper, but the structural fundamentals are too strong for a 2008-style collapse. The global energy transition demand and building of digital infrastructure is not a “trend”, and comes from a decades-long reconstruction of the global economy. As long as supply remains constrained by long permitting lead times and high hurdles for capital, prices will likely stay elevated.
We didn’t predict the bull run in commodity prices, but we can definitely help you define value in this current and any changing pricing environment.
In a market that is stable but demanding, the margin for error is razor-thin. This is where the VBKOM expertise and extensive mining knowledge become a strategic asset for our global clients.
We understand the African landscape as well as the global standards. Whether you are looking to conduct due diligence on a potential acquisition in a high-growth jurisdiction, optimize your Life-of-Mine planning through advanced digital simulations, or unlock further value from your deposit, VBKOM provides the technical depth and operational pragmatism needed to turn high commodity prices into sustainable long-term value. We don’t just provide reports; we provide a partnership that understands the nuances of the current cycle.
Business Insider, "Gold Price". Gold PRICE Today | Gold Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Gold per Ounce | Markets Insider
Business Insider, "Platinum Price". Platinum PRICE Today | Platinum Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Platinum per Ounce | Markets Insider
Johnson Matthey, "PGM prices and trading". https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management
Business Insider, "Copper Price". Copper PRICE Today | Copper Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Copper per Ounce | Markets Insider
Trading Economics, "Lithium". Lithium - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News
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